cyber attacks, honeynet, honeypot, SSH, time series, prediction

A large number of cyber attacks are commonly conducted against home computers, mobile7devices, as well as servers providing various services. One such prominently attacked service, or a pro-8tocol in this case, is the Secure Shell (SSH) used to gain remote access to manage systems. Besides hu-9man attackers, botnets are a major source of attacks on SSH servers. Tools such as honeypots allow an10effective means of recording and analysing such attacks.However, is it also possible to use them to ef-11fectively predict these attacks? The prediction of SSH attacks, specifically the prediction of activity on12certain subjects, such as autonomous systems, will be beneficial to system administrators, internet ser-13vice providers, and CSIRT teams. This article presents multiple methods for using a time series, based14on real-world data,to predict these attacks. It focuses on the overall prediction of attacks on the hon-15eynet and the prediction of attacks from specific geographical regions. Multiple approaches are used,16such as ARIMA, SARIMA, GARCH, and Bootstrapping. The article presents the viability, precision and17usefulness of the individual approaches for various areas of IT security.